2021.10.24 22:41 frickdom The Colonel
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2021.10.24 22:41 CadillacDale 2022 Draft Analysis: What the numbers suggest about starting quarterbacks
As I was watching today's valiant, but predictably futile effort against our former franchise quarterback, my thoughts naturally started to wander towards the 2022 draft class and how the Lions should approach their massive rebuild initiative.
Naturally, the quarterback position is one at some point that needs to be addressed. While I don't think it's absolutely impossible that Goff will end up being the long term answer for the Lions at QB, the chances of that happening - in my mind - are about as likely as the Lions winning the NFC North this year; statistically possible, realistically not going to happen.
With that in mind, I think it is a very safe assumption the Lions are going to have a top 5 pick, and #1 overall is very much on the table. Having the #1 overall pick when a guy like Trevor Lawrence or Joe Burrow are on the board is obviously a fantastic situation to be in for your franchise. Unfortunately for the Lions, there does not seem to be any obviously elite quarterback prospects in this class. That's not to say there aren't any players in this class that could develop into good pros, I think there are, but there aren't any guys out there in my mind that require very little projection to see a multi-year, all pro level starter. When you have a top 5 pick (especially #1 overall), I am of the opinion that is what you are looking for; guys whose tape and production clearly demonstrate they are big-time impact players, whose game translates well to the NFL. There is obviously no "zero risk" prospect. But what you're trying to do within the top 5 is maximize positional impact and minimize the margin for error. The more questions about how a particular prospect's game translates to the pros (i.e. physical limitations, football IQ, level of competition etc.), the higher the likelihood that your scouting projections could be incorrect. When you are in a massive rebuilding phase as the Lions are now, you want to avoid that at all costs. When I look at the 2022 QB draft class, I don't see a prospect in there that I would be comfortable drafting that high.
So, having said all that, I wanted to look at what current NFL QB performance metrics would tell us about how closely aligned elite level performance would be to a player's draft position. I went through and looked at the top 24* QBR standings so far this season, and correlated that to where each player was selected in their respective drafts. Then I tabled the data, which is provided in the link below:
The results were pretty interesting actually! Once you get passed the immediate dong punch of Matthew Stafford leading the NFL in QBR, the data suggests that reaching for a quarterback at the top of the draft is a very risky proposition. For one, you have now exhausted a pick on a lesser prospect that could have been used elsewhere to greatly improve your roster with an immediate impact player. Secondly, the data also suggests that you can find some very good players in later rounds of the draft, and it is not as uncommon as you might think.
If you were to build the "aggregate quarterback', or in other words if you tally all of the top 24 quarterbacks based on QBR and find the median, your aggregate quarterback is a second round pick, the #35 overall player selected (I also ran the average on this and removed Tom Brady since I don't think it's likely the Lions are going to find the best quarterback in NFL history in the sixth round. Didn't change much 1st Rd., pick 28). 7 of the current top 24 quarterbacks (29%) were not first round selections.
What I found further interesting from this exercise is that if you remove the #1 overall picks (there are 6 of them) and then calculate an aggregate QBR for the remaining quarterbacks, you would have a player with a 62.8 QBR, good for 8th best in the league. When you invert the equation and apply that strictly to #1 overall picks, you get a player with a QBR of 51.3. Which would be good for 20th best in the league.
Ultimately what I took away from the data is that it demonstrates taking the "best" or highest valued QB prospect at the top of the draft, simply because you need one is probably not a good idea. If Joe Burrow, or Trevor Lawrence are there, sure go for it. When that is not the case, the play is to find the highest impact player you can get that represents the least amount of risk. It is not uncommon at all to find a guy that can lead a competitive franchise as late as the 4th round (yes, I know Brady was a 6th rounder, I am going to assume the Lions will not be able to get lightening to strike twice).
So we'll see whether or not this spurs any interesting conversations. I am of the opinion that the Lions should go with the best available pass rusher, or the best offensive player available; whichever they value more. The data, I think suggests that it would agree with that approach instead of rolling the dice one a quarterback. Interested to get thoughts, comments or counterpoints from those that care to weigh in!
2021.10.24 22:41 Gatesville1 Dee maybe you know about this too? Was it your actions that got this bullshit in motion
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2021.10.24 22:41 MarkXal My first large format camera!
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2021.10.24 22:41 LevelOneCritter Chicken pesto
2021.10.24 22:41 toledomark55 [US] [Buying] Attack on Titan volume 34 Kinokuniya exclusive variant cover and Shikishi board
2021.10.24 22:41 -bruhegg- how do I do things on the new update
when the dungeons update released all i could do is load into the game, look around, and jump
whenever I try clicking return to home I am met with an infinite loading screen
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2021.10.24 22:41 nova3127 M22 PS4 no quitters
PS4. Regs. Year 2 week 4
Vikings (2-1) Browns (0-3) Dolphins (0-3) Falcons (0-3) Rams (1-2) Texans (1-2) Broncos (0-3) Raiders (1-2) Bills (1-2) Giants (2-1) Seahawks (3-0)
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2021.10.24 22:41 VyPr_Red Snotty boy meme but with Kahoot Names
2021.10.24 22:41 Lucky_leprechaun Turtle has tripled in size since I found them.
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2021.10.24 22:41 ConsumptiveMaryJane What visual language does Ireland use?
I'm a Canadian looking to resettle with my family in Ireland in a few years, and one thing that was on my mind was sign language.
I'm autistic, and when I do certain overwhelming things like grocery shopping (where it's really loud/bright,) I switch from speaking English to using American Sign Language, which my husband interprets/works with.
Obviously I don't expect ASL to be a big thing overseas, so even though my husband understands it, if I need to use a visual language to talk to someone else, I want to make sure I'm comprehensible. So! What visual language, if any, does Ireland have? And are there resources I can go to to learn?
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2021.10.24 22:41 nekolyssi Can I sell goods online as a side-hustle with a Engineer/Specialist in Humanities/International Services visa?
Hello everyone. I'm sure questions like these flow through quite often. I've searched through the sub and couldn't exactly find a clear answer so I'm hoping putting it out there one more time is worth a shot.
I'm an English teacher with an EngineeSpecialist in Humanities/International Services visa. I'm really into anime goods and have a small but dedicated group of people who are fans of a particular series that want my help getting anime goods to them in America/Europe, etc. I would love to start doing something like that to earn a little cash on the side, but am nervous what that means for taxes and my visa.
All cash flow will be in my American bank account/PayPal, but I know what matters isn't where the money is going, it's where I'm living, so I'm assuming I can't just get away with only declaring any "profit" on US taxes alone. That being said, is this kind of side thing acceptable under my visa? My company currently does my taxes for me, so I'm not sure what additional I would have to do come next year if this does turn out to be a consistent thing I'm doing. I'd hardly make a profit doing something like this, maybe like 500-1,000 yen per order, but because it's an import/export type of thing I think I'd definitely have to keep receipts to prove that all the money I'm receiving is NOT all profit.
I appreciate any and all input, thank you so much for taking the time to read this!
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2021.10.24 22:41 Retro090 Hide the pain toyoharu
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2021.10.24 22:41 hornyalt197 minecraft should be hyper realistic in every way possible
2021.10.24 22:41 lol33124 add polls
2021.10.24 22:41 ChampagneProblem23 Gianna is a bitch and you can't change my mind
It is so obvious that she's Abby's puppet/yes man and she's always hated Chloe. Around 2013-2014 when we found out that Abby made fun of Chloe's eye at S4 nationals, I commented "#chloeisbeautiful" on one of her IG posts and she blocked me.
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2021.10.24 22:41 Joltout I'm pretty proud of this track. It feels so smooth and fun to drive on!
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2021.10.24 22:41 GoldenRetreevee I’m bored! F21
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2021.10.24 22:41 huskerthundercubs5 Top of lottery vs. Mid-1st Round Gambles
I know everything in the draft is kind of a crapshoot but I feel like we’re seeing the difference between a true top of the lottery pick (more sure thing like Giddey thanks to our scouting) and a couple of Mid-1st round draft picks like Baze and Poku. Baze and Poku might still pan out but you can start to see their ceiling pretty clearly. Obviously we want higher draft picks but I was just thinking about how hyped we get about all our first round picks. But all first round picks aren’t the same. We need more impact players at the top AND more swings at players like Baze and Poku (and Dort for that matter).
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2021.10.24 22:41 Possible_Pepper1327 Doing FAR exam sims (Becker), and holy shit are these hard to navigate and horrible at stimulating IRL scenarios.
I was doing fine until I stumbled into these things. And this is literally the first one in the course ( F1-M2). Am I fucked? I'm going to be working full time pretty soon and I dont know if I'll have enough time for this.
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2021.10.24 22:41 curiosityv Confused about IP camera choice mainly because of privacy concerns
Most manufacturers are Chinese so concerned about privacy using wifi ip camera.
Most of them require you to use their own app and their own nvr -so I guess they spy on you?
Which brand is safest and how to to solve privacy issue when viewing remotely on my phone or browser ...I have VPN but not sure how to setup camera remote access...
I currently use IP cam viewer app on my phone for remote viewing but I know its Chinese app
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2021.10.24 22:41 Dego000 ASMR Typing on Keyboard [Intentional] [Female] [Portuguese]
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2021.10.24 22:41 P3nguin_God Is this the best case for the 16 inch M1 Max Macbook Pro?
On Apple's website, the dimensions of the 16 inch M1 Max Macbook Pro 2021 are
Length: 14.01 inches (35.57cm)
Width: 9.77 inches (24.81cm)
Height: 0.66 inches (1.68cm)
This is going to be an almost $4k computer so I want to protect it instead of using a flimsy hardshell case or fabric sleeve.
So far, the only type of hard shell case I could find was from a brand called Pelican.
1470 = (15.7"x10.7"x3.9")
1490 = (17.8"x11.4"x4.1")
1490CC1 = (17.8"x11.4"x4.1")
iM2370 = (18.2"x12.1"x5.2")
1495 = (18.9"x13.1"x3.8")
1495CC1 = (18.9"x13.1"x3.8")
1085 = (14.3"x10.4"x2")
1095 = (15.8"x11.2"x2.1")
1095CC = (15.8"x11.2"x2.1")
The Pelican 1085 looks to be the perfect size for the 16 inch Macbook Pro, but I don't know what the size of the foam cubes which you pluck out are. If they are half an inch each, there still wouldn't be enough space because of the length difference between 14.01" of the laptop and 14.3" of the interior.
Would it be better to get kaizen foam (Which is just a block of foam instead of cubed, and then make a custom cut of the Pelican 1085 to have a smaller case, or to go with the Pelican 1095 where you have more room for foam cubes to cover the edges?
I watched this video about the Pelican 1085 and he was able to fit the entire case into the laptop compartment of his backpack, but I am not sure if the 1095 would be able to do the same.
What are your thoughts?
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2021.10.24 22:41 ChomboKongg I just remembered we're out here.
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2021.10.24 22:41 lonewolf3739 Just why? I am really upset at what TRS people are doing for the past few days
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